Forecasting Regional Mobility

Connected, Autonomous Vehicles Changing Travel Landscape

 

Evaluating System Performance

It is abundantly clear that the introduction of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) will change the landscape of travel in the region. Proceeding with the traditional projects recommended in this plan certainly provides benefits to mobility. However, the impacts of CAVs, ridesharing and reductions in trip making rates will be revolutionary. The region will realize tremendous improvements in regional mobility, as described in the Vision section.

Using the OKI Travel Demand Model, the overall transportation system performance was evaluated for the following scenarios:

  • Year 2020 Scenario is existing conditions including the existing transportation network
  • Year 2050 No Plan Scenario includes the existing transportation network plus only committed projects in the fiscal year 2021-2024 Transportation Improvement Program and 2050 socioeconomic forecasts. No change to the number of connected autonomous vehicles (CAV), ridesharing or trip generation rates.
  • Year 2050 Plan Base Scenario includes the existing transportation network plus the recommended projects and 2050 socioeconomic forecasts. No change to the number of connected autonomous vehicles (CAV), ridesharing (vehicle occupancy rate) or trip rates.
  • Year 2050 Plan Scenario includes the existing transportation network plus the recommended projects and 2050 socioeconomic forecasts. The number of CAVs are 70 percent of all vehicles, ridesharing is up 30 percent and trip rates decrease by 15 percent.
  • Year 2050 Plan Vision Scenario includes the existing transportation network plus the recommended projects and 2050 socioeconomic forecasts. The number of CAV’s are 89 percent of all vehicles, ridesharing is up 40 percent and trip rates decrease by 20 percent.

Comparing VMT and VHT Increases

  • When comparing 2020 to 2050 Plan Base, daily VMT is expected to increase 19 percent, daily VHT is expected to increase 21 percent and congested VMT is expected to increase 38 percent.
  • When comparing the 2050 Plan Base to the 2050 No Plan, VMT and VHT remain nearly the same, while VHT and congested VMT is expected to decrease by 2 percent. Daily hours of delay is expected to decrease 7 percent.
  • When comparing 2050 Plan Base to the 2050 Plan, VMT is expected to decrease 34 percent, VHT is forecasted to decrease 48 percent and congested VMT is expected to decrease 80 percent.
  • The impacts of the 2050 Plan Vision will result in even greater improvements in VMT and congestion.

Crash estimates are not a direct output of the travel model, but, based on research by national safety experts, crash reductions due to connected and autonomous vehicles are predicted to be about 75 percent for the Plan and 85 percent for 2050 Vision. In addition to the obvious benefits to personal safety and property, the impacts on congestion and delay due to incidents are also substantial.

Summary by Mode

The OKI 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan includes revenues assigned to continued operations and maintenance of the system (O&M). The following is a brief summary of new projects for each mode in addition to O&M.

Transit

Fixed-route service is provided by five transit agencies across the region. Central city neighborhoods, served by many routes and a large number of buses running at relatively short headways, enjoy very good radial access to the Central Business District, or downtown Cincinnati. Suburban locations are served primarily by commuter service composed of more express service but fewer runs. More information about Transit can be found under Existing & Future Conditions: Modal Trends & Conditions: Transit & Mobility as a Service.

The transit recommendations in this plan include high frequency bus service on high priority transit corridors (BRT), creation of additional bus passenger facilities and shelters, and extension of streetcar service to Northern Kentucky.

The plan recommendations include 15 transit projects with an investment of $823 million.

The table below highlights the percentage of people, households and jobs served by the existing fixed-route transit service in the region and recommended fixed route transit service as provided for in the 2050 Plan. The results of this impact assessment found that:

  • Between 2020 and 2050, the number of population and households within easy walking distance (one-quarter mile) of a fixed-route transit line will increase, though this represents a slight decrease of the percentage.
  • Between 2020 and 2050, employment within easy walking distance of a fixed-route transit line is estimated to increase by 76,000 with the percentage remaining nearly the same.
  • This evaluation only examines the impact of expanding the service area. The recommendations in the 2050 Plan will do little to expand the transit service area. The plan recommendations will improve the quality of transit service within several key corridors. This improved service includes more frequent service and increased operating hours. New and improved transit hubs will make transit use more convenient, efficient and safer.

Active Transportation

A goal of this plan is to provide a balanced, multimodal program of projects. Active transportation trips such as walking and biking often serve at the beginning end of a trip, which makes them very important to consider. Local partners provided insightful bicycle and pedestrian transportation needs during the development of this 2050 Plan.

• 28 bicycle and pedestrian projects are recommended, adding 66 new miles of shared use paths at a total investment $208 million.

Roadway

• The plan recommendations add 198 roadway lane miles to the highway network at a total investment of $2 billion. An additional $5.45 billion is recommended for a wide range of projects including signalization upgrades, transportation system management and operations (TSMO), intersection improvements and major reconstruction projects.

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